Speaker
Description
Political polling has long been seen as the cornerstone of election prediction, gauging public interest or apathy towards a given candidate and inspiring fear or complacency in incumbents nationwide. But polling in US elections can be far from accurate, and indeed the efficacy of political polling has been under heavy scrutiny since the 2016 election that saw Donald Trump swept into the highest office. This paper seeks to tease out the spatial impacts on political polling that are common in US elections both at the national and state level, utilizing election result data to understand the spatial component of polling error. Using the analysis of these past data this paper then seeks to lay out some cautions for early polling for the 2024 election cycle.
